【双语】2024年中国经济：在不确定中迎来了开门红

在晋江七彩狐集团的生产车间，缝纫机声持续不断地响起，工人们埋头赶制要出口到欧美的泳装订单。“正月初三，包装、后整理的员工就开始上班了。”负责人说，为了保障大批量出口订单按时完成，各生产线都马力全开。

Sewing machines have been humming non-stop in the production workshops of Qicaihu Swimwear Group in Jinjiang City, Fujian Province. Inside the workshops, workers have been moving full speed ahead to process orders for shipping to Europe and America. “Three days into the Chinese New Year, our staff in charge of fabric finishing and packing have resumed work,” said a leader of the company. To knock over large volumes of export orders on schedule, all production lines are churning at full throttle.

作为中国外贸稳增长的主力军，民营企业在前几天发布的2024年一季度经济数据中表现得格外亮眼。数据显示，一季度中国进出口规模历史同期首次突破10万亿元，其中民企同比增长10.7%，总额占比达54.3%，可以说是一季度外贸总值的半壁江山。不仅华为、阿里巴巴等大厂成果颇丰，外贸新业态、新模式也降低了中小微企业“出海”的门槛，拓宽了其订单渠道。

As the main engine for the steady growth of China’s foreign trade, private companies boast themselves as a highlight in the country’s 2024 Q1 economic performance. A year-on-year comparison showed that China’s import and export volume in the first quarter surpassed ten trillion RMB for the first time, setting a new record. The volume contributed by private companies accounted for 54.3%, showing an increase of 10.7%. Among them, tech giants like Huawei and Alibaba maintained stellar performance, while small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have diversified the source of their orders, thanks to the new business forms and models in foreign trade, which lowered the threshold for SMEs.

除此之外，中国产品的出口结构也持续优化，如附加值比较高的机电产品的出口增速明显高于平均值，中国产品在出口市场上仍有较强的竞争力和吸引力，保持着稳步、优质发展的态势。

Besides, China’s export structure has been improving. For example, high value-added mechanical and electrical products have shown above-average growth rates in export. Products from China are still competitive and attractive in the export market, maintaining a steady momentum and high-quality growth.

不仅进出口，一季度国内生产总值同比增长也超出预期，达到了5.3%。多家外媒用了“strong start”（开门红）“grew faster than expected”（增长超出预期）等来形容2024年的中国经济开局向好。据专家预测，今年中国经济不仅开门红，按照去年二季度高于一季度的态势，今年第二季度GDP或有可能达到7%左右的增速。

Another achievement to write home about was China’s Q1 GDP which hit 5.3%. Many foreign media used phrases like “strong start” and “grew faster than expected” when covering China’s economic performance in the first quarter. Some experts predicted that we can expect more exciting news from China’s economic performance — usually, the second quarter will surpass the first, so a 7% or so GDP growth rate is not a dream too big.

其中，作为一季度GDP超预期的主要因素，制造业的表现持续较好，尤其是包括医药制造，航空、航天器及设备制造等在内的高技术制造业增加值增长高达7.5%，中国在全球产业链中的地位不断提高。

Behind the more-than-pleasing Q1 GDP performance, the manufacturing industry is the main driver, while the added-value of the high-tech manufacturing industry, which includes pharmaceutical, aerospace, as well as spacecraft and equipment manufacturing, grew at a formidable 7.5%. It’s not hard to see that China’s status on the ranks of the global industrial chain is continually elevating.

当然，中国经济也面临一些挑战，比如需求疲软问题、房地产供需双弱、企业面临流动性风险等。针对这些风险，中国已经或正着手采取解决措施，去年12月的中央经济工作会议，特别提出“必须坚持深化供给侧结构性改革和着力扩大有效需求协同发力”的工作部署，并正在具体实践中有序推进；今年一季度推出的降准、降息的积极货币政策对CPI的影响还在等待验证。

Naturally, there are challenges facing China’s economy, like sluggish demand, weak performance on both the supply and the demand in real estate, and the liquidity risks of real estate enterprises. But, China is tackling these problems. Last December, the Central Economic Work Conference stressed coordinated efforts in deepening structural reform on the supply side and expanding effective demand, which have been translated into action. In the first three months of 2024, China also launched positive monetary policies including cuts on the required reserve ratio and interest rate, whose influence on CPI is yet to be seen.

面临着复杂的国内外局势，2024年中国经济在诸多不确定中迎来了开门红。虽然经济稳定向好的基础尚不牢固，但好在积极因素积累足够多，这让我们仍旧对中国的经济充满信心。

Amid complexities in the international landscape, China scored commendably on its economic performance at the initial phase of the year. Although there is no guarantee that the economy will keep up its steady growth impetus, there are indeed enough positive factors to continue spurring our confidence towards China’s economy.

（本期指导：全国人大代表、国际经济学会会士、辽宁大学校长余淼杰）

Expert contributing to this episode: Yu Miaojie, NPC deputy, Fellow of International Economic Association, President of Liaoning University

来源：中国3分钟